The origin of the first ever pan-Asian initiative dates back to March 1947, when Pandit Nehru, foreign minister in the interim government organised an Asian Relations Conference in New Delhi. The movement understandably petered out, because Asian nations were still emerging from the clutches of colonialism at that juncture, but its spirit inspired the successful Bandung Afro-Asian Conference which followed in 1955. The passing of visionary leaders like Soekarno, U Nu and Nehru, saw the pan-Asian focus fading, and it was finally lost amidst the tensions of the Cold War. With the world’s economic and demographic centres of gravity now inexorably shifting to Asia, has the time come to attempt a revival?
Till recently, many of us in Asia fondly nurtured the hope that our economies were internationally ‘de-coupled’ and therefore insulated against turbulence. But the shock waves of the recent US sub-prime crisis, threat of recession, as well as globally rising commodity prices and climbing domestic inflation have served to wreck any remaining illusions of autarchy.
The 100 dollars per barrel mark was supposed to be the trip-wire which would shatter the ‘oil bubble’ and bring prices tumbling down. Early June saw oil crossing 135 dollars a barrel, amidst deafening silence, and the trip wire has now been presumably re-set at 200 dollars. The fact that one does not hear too many complaints, internationally, about oil prices, shows that money is nowhere near as important for economies as the assured supply of energy, which is now becoming the cause of increasing anxiety.
Over 80 per cent of Asia’s energy trade is carried by ship, resulting in heavy dependence on the sea lanes of communication or SLOCs as the navy calls them. In 1913, the British First Sea Lord, Admiral ‘Jackie’ Fisher stressing the dependence of his country on sea lanes, remarked: “It’s not invasion we have to fear if the Royal Navy’s beaten, its starvation.”
Asians too, need to face the stark reality of their reliance on energy SLOCs and the consequences of any disruptions. And also that we are all in the same boat; the seas are definitely turning choppy, and unless everyone in Asia pulls together to find ways to secure energy SLOCs, it is quite possible that our little boat may capsize.
Lessons from History
Whether or not one believes in the utility of history as a teacher, prudence demands that we cast a backwards glance at the role of natural resources as a factor in past conflict initiation. Without entering into a dialectic involving the Malthusian or the Cornucopian models of resource depletion, one can assert that access to resources has been at the root of most latter day conflicts.
The seeds of WW II lay in Germany’s quest for oil, minerals and food grain, and of course, lebensraum in Eastern Europe. In Japan’s case too, it was her dire need for economic self-sufficiency and access to mainland Asia’s vast resources which called for military domination of the region.
In the post-WW II era, the imminent disruption of maritime trade has invariably triggered armed intervention by nations. The 1956 invasion of Egypt by UK, France and Israel, the Six-day War of 1967, the ‘tanker war’ of the 1980s and the Falklands war are all illustrations of this. But the most dramatic demonstration of the criticality of securing energy supplies remains the ongoing serial conflict in the Persian Gulf.
As far as the future is concerned, with only one fifth of the world population consuming four-fifths of its finite resources, it is quite likely that the 1,000 billion barrels of oil remaining on earth (and their transportation) will become an issue of contention and strife within a few decades.
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